Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#177
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#199
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 19.8% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 88.0% 90.7% 68.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 93.0% 84.0%
Conference Champion 22.9% 24.2% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 4.2%
First Round17.2% 18.2% 10.4%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 416 - 318 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 316   Grambling St. W 77-65 87%    
  Dec 01, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 96-72 99%    
  Dec 05, 2020 302   Prairie View W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 11, 2020 104   @ Nevada L 73-81 22%    
  Dec 13, 2020 25   Arizona St. L 74-85 16%    
  Dec 19, 2020 91   San Francisco L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 22, 2020 50   Colorado L 67-78 17%    
  Dec 29, 2020 305   Denver W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 08, 2021 340   @ Tarleton St. W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 09, 2021 340   @ Tarleton St. W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 15, 2021 345   Chicago St. W 76-56 95%    
  Jan 16, 2021 345   Chicago St. W 76-56 95%    
  Jan 22, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. W 69-58 82%    
  Jan 23, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. W 69-58 81%    
  Jan 29, 2021 92   New Mexico St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 30, 2021 92   New Mexico St. L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 05, 2021 231   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 06, 2021 231   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 12, 2021 308   Cal St. Northridge W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 19, 2021 271   California Baptist W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 20, 2021 271   California Baptist W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 26, 2021 286   @ Seattle W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 27, 2021 286   @ Seattle W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 05, 2021 291   Utah Valley W 78-69 78%    
  Mar 06, 2021 291   Utah Valley W 78-69 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 7.6 6.4 2.3 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.1 12.1 9.3 3.5 35.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 7.0 5.9 2.7 0.3 19.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.1 6.1 9.1 12.5 13.8 16.7 14.0 11.0 6.4 2.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
15-1 100.0% 6.4    5.4 1.1
14-2 68.4% 7.6    4.4 3.1 0.1
13-3 32.0% 4.5    1.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
12-4 11.2% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.5 7.4 1.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.3% 58.9% 58.7% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.4%
15-1 6.4% 47.9% 47.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.4 0.0%
14-2 11.0% 34.9% 34.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 7.2
13-3 14.0% 25.3% 25.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 10.5
12-4 16.7% 19.5% 19.5% 15.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.6 13.4
11-5 13.8% 12.0% 12.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 12.2
10-6 12.5% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.1 1.0 11.3
9-7 9.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 8.5
8-8 6.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.8
7-9 4.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-10 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-11 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.0 5.3 6.1 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.7 18.6 41.9 18.6 18.6 2.3